What's next for Singh and his broken political pact with Trudeau? – Canadian News

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh could be the deciding factor in the next election after breaking his political alliance with the Liberals, but strategists say that could prove to be both an advantage and a disadvantage.

While Singh ended the deal the Liberals had relied on since 2022 to prevent the fall of their minority government, he indicated no plans to vote to oust that government before the next scheduled election.

The party deliberately spread the message that the end of the agreement did not mean imminent new elections, but that each vote would be examined individually.

Singh declined to answer questions after announcing the news in a social media video on Wednesday, but is expected to hold a press conference in Toronto on Thursday.

The decision comes at a time when the Conservatives are ahead of both the Liberals and the NDP in the polls and Singh is trying to position himself as the only viable alternative to Tory leader Pierre Poilievre.

The NDP will likely want to somehow differentiate itself from the Liberals before the next election, says Mélanie Richer, Singh's former communications director and managing director at Earnscliffe Strategies.

“I think they really need to spend the next year talking to voters who want change in a way that's less governmental and showing them what they've been able to do concretely to make people's lives better,” she said.

The agreement met most of the NDP's demands, including a new national dental care program. From a strategic perspective, Singh also increased his credibility with voters, she said.

While the New Democrats may have gained some votes from former liberal voters, they also lost ground to the Conservatives, she said.

Singh may need time to outline his “vision of change, which is very different from that of the Conservatives,” she said.

Poilievre has won the favor of working-class voters who have traditionally supported the NDP in key constituencies, including northern Ontario, said Conservative strategist Ginny Roth.

The conservative party leader is likely to continue to attack Singh for supporting the government, as he has been doing for months.

Just hours after Singh announced his withdrawal from the agreement, Poilievre called the announcement a “stunt” and urged Singh to vote to overthrow the government at the next opportunity.

“There is a simple way for the NDP to avoid this line of attack. Either it overthrows the government or it demands something from it that the government is not willing to give or can only give with difficulty,” says Roth, who was Poilievre's communications director during the election campaign for the party leadership.

“They haven't done that since 2015 and I don't think they plan to do so.”

It could be politically risky for Singh to continue supporting the government in the upcoming confidence votes, says Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal and strategist at Perez Strategies.

However, this is probably less of a risk than sticking with the Liberals at this point, he said.

“Pierre Poilievre will undoubtedly attack Singh for supporting Trudeau and for having no credibility,” he said.

“I think it will all depend on how convincingly he can communicate.”

When the agreement was signed in 2022, the political landscape looked completely different.

The Liberal government had only renewed its mandate less than a year ago. The federal government had recently declared a state of emergency after the Freedom Convoy demonstration blocked downtown Ottawa and international border crossings in protest against COVID-19 restrictions. The Russian invasion of Ukraine had only just begun. And Pierre Poilievre had not yet been elected leader of the Conservatives.

During the past turbulent years, Singh has helped Trudeau maintain the longest-serving minority government in a long time, Perez said.

If Singh's decision now leads to early elections, it would be a political victory for Poilievre's Conservatives, he said.