USC 2024: Over/Under prediction for total regular season wins

Keep fighting! The 2024 USC Trojans football season has begun! Can they make a splash in their first year as a member of the Big Ten Conference? It's time to check out our college football odds series, where we'll reveal our prediction and pick for USC to win outright.

Exactly one year ago, expectations for Southern California football couldn't have been higher when reigning Heisman Memorial Trophy winner QB Caleb Williams returned for one final year with a slew of receivers at his disposal. Heading into 2023 as the sixth-ranked team in all of college football in the AP Preseason Poll, it was the Trojans who failed in grand fashion with a disappointing 8-5 record. While that mark may be acceptable for most universities, it's certainly not the standard in Southern California. Do the Trojans have what it takes to rebound and be a conference contender in a crowded Big Ten?

Here are the college football outright win odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

College Football Odds: USC Outright Odds

Over: 8.5 (-122)

Under: 8.5 (-102)

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Why USC will reach the over

Who will be the lucky young man to fill Caleb Williams' big shoes at quarterback this season? Of course, USC's skills at football's most important position are expected to regress in 2024, but head coach Lincoln Riley will hand the keys of the Lamborghini to last year's backup QB Miller Moss. Then again, let's not forget Moss' magical performance during the Holiday Bowl against Louisville, where he threw a whopping six touchdowns en route to a 42-28 win. Simply put, Moss is no Williams, but he could still become something special under the tutelage of Lincoln Riley. Not to mention, USC is the gold standard for successful quarterbacks in college football, and it seems Moss is up to the challenge of being the team's starting quarterback.

During Lincoln Riley's seven-year tenure as a college football head coach, critics have criticized him for recruiting defensive talent, but one position that could have a breakout season in 2024 could be the defensive line.

The defensive duo in the trenches of Bear Alexander and Elijah Hughes is solid, and the return of top pass rusher Jamil Muhammad at one end adds additional strength.

Add in the linebacker duo of veteran Eric Gentry (assuming he stays healthy), leading tackler Mason Cobb and standout transfer Easton Mascarenas-Arnold from Oregon State, and the unit has considerable talent. As depth increases along the defensive line, the team should improve its performance against the run.

If the team shows progress in this area, this USC team could make a stir in the Big Ten.

Why USC will crack the under

For the same reasons, USC could end up playing below its value due to its inability to stop opposing offenses from moving down the field at will. Last fall, the Trojans couldn't avoid a nosebleed when they allowed 34.4 points per game, which was the sixth-most in the Power Five. While a few select transfers should help the team on that side of the ball, it still might not be enough as the Trojans contend with one of the toughest schedules in all of America.

On paper, the Trojans will face four teams ranked in the top 15 in college football and will begin with a tough opener against the 13th-ranked LSU Tigers. Compared to last season, this year's schedule will be a tougher test for Coach Riley and Co., as it could very well lead to the team's downfall.

The Trojans are expected to improve overall on defense, but by how much? Overall, the signing of former UCLA defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn could help, but in a far superior league, it might not be enough.

Final USC Over/Under Total Win Prediction

Will the Trojans fight to the win? Or will they stumble into another lackluster season for the second year in a row? With the team moving to the Big Ten Conference, expectations remain high for Lincoln Riley. If USC wants to return to college football glory, they'll have to prove it on the field. Unfortunately, the schedule might be too difficult.

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Final USC Over/Under Total Win Prediction: Under 8.5 (-122)