In Saxony and Thuringia, AfD and BSW seem to be luring away support from other political parties.

Table of contents

• Electoral changes in Saxony: Quick assessments of the parties
• Saxony: Deep insights into voting patterns
• Electoral changes in Thuringia: Quick assessments of the parties
• Thuringia: Deep insights into voting patterns

The Left Party's downward trend in Thuringia, significant losses for the coalition parties, progress for the AfD and a stronger entry for the BSW – there have been significant shifts in voting patterns for the 2024 state elections in Saxony and Thuringia. A brief analysis of each party's performance can be found below, with further details on voter shifts in the accompanying graphic.

Electoral changes in Saxony: Quick assessments of the parties

Die CDU Gain votes from the left by attracting many voters from its former allies, the Greens and the SPD, to the Union. The AfD and the BSW suffered losses.

Die AfD Was able to win votes from almost all parties, with the majority coming from the CDU. However, many former AfD voters also switched to the BSW, which is making its debut in this election.

Die Left Party Many of their voters had to hand over the BSW of former party member Sahra Wagenknecht. In addition, they lost votes to the CDU, AfD and SPD. Many former Left Party voters also decided not to vote this time.

Die Greenwho were previously in government are in a precarious situation: They lost votes to their coalition partners CDU and SPD, as well as to the BSW, AfD, Left Party and non-voters.

Die SPD secured votes from the Greens and the Left Party. In addition, many non-voters decided to take part in this election and vote for the Social Democrats. The CDU and the BSW suffered the greatest losses, but the AfD also gained many former SPD votes.

The BSW The alliance had a successful start in Saxony: many Left Party voters switched to the BSW. The alliance also gained votes from the other established parties and won over many previous non-voters.

More informationPlease click through the graphics below to see how voting behavior has changed for each party.

Saxony: Deep insights into voting patterns

Electoral changes in Thuringia: Quick assessments of the parties

Die Left Partywhich had previously led the government suffered significant losses this time. It lost votes to the BSW of former Left Party member Sahra Wagenknecht, as well as to the CDU and AfD. Some former Left Party voters also moved to the coalition partner SPD, while others decided not to vote.

The AfD was able to win votes from almost all parties and also persuade many non-voters to vote. However, the right-wing populists also suffered losses and gave votes to the BSW.

The CDU The SPD was able to win votes from the previous governing parties, the majority of which went to the Left Party. Many FDP voters also switched to the Christian Democrats. The Union suffered losses to the AfD and the BSW.

The SPD Although the SPD lost many votes to the CDU and BSW, but also to the AfD, it was able to win votes from its previous coalition partners.

The Greenwho were previously part of the minority government lost many votes to the CDU, but also to the coalition partners SPD and BSW. The AfD also poached votes from them.

The FDP had to watch as many of its previous voters defected to the CDU, but at the same time lost votes to the AfD and BSW. Some of its previous voters did not even take part in the election this time.

Sahra Wagenknecht's (BSW) alliance also had a successful start in Thuringia: many voters switched from the governing Left Party to the BSW. However, the newcomer also took votes away from all other parties and managed to persuade non-voters to cast their ballots.

For more information, click through the charts below to see how voter flows have changed for each party.

Thuringia: Deep insights into voter flows

About the data used: Voter migration is a rough estimate that compares voter flows between the last and current election. The opinion research institute Infratest Dimap calculates the gains and losses of voters between the parties for the ARD. The basis is an estimation model that takes into account, among other things, polls on election day (so-called exit polls), the result of the preliminary election on election day and changes in the electorate itself (such as new first-time voters).

Even the CDU, as a strong party, had to see a portion of its voters defect to the Left Party in the Thuringian state elections.

In the 2024 state elections, the CDU will have to accept a loss of votes compared to its alliance partners in both Saxony and Thuringia.

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