LSU vs. USC score prediction by football expert model

While most of the college football action in Week 1 has traditionally taken place on Saturday, we're in for a notable primetime game from Las Vegas next Sunday when LSU and USC face off in a battle of the ranked teams that, following conference realignment, will now be an SEC-Big Ten matchup.

Both teams are similar in important ways, and both hope to play significantly better defense after their respective units were among the worst in college football last year.

And that they have found the right replacement for the quarterback position, as both USC and LSU must name successors to former Heisman Trophy winners.

What does the analytics say about the game? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a better look at how USC and LSU fare in this crucial Sin City season opener.

The simulations favor the SEC team in this clash at the start of the 2024 season.

SP+ predicts LSU to defeat USC by a projected score of 41-31 and win the game by a projected 9.2 point margin.

The model gives LSU a projected 72 percent chance of a clear win.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

According to the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, LSU is the favorite by 4.5 points against USC, with the total score for the game set at 64.5.

FanDuel has set the moneyline odds for LSU at -182 and for USC at +150.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should consider the following…

Other analysis models also predict that LSU will win the Week 1 game.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and select winners.

The model predicts an LSU win in 54.7 percent of its simulations, while USC is likely to emerge victorious in the remaining 45.3 percent of simulations.

The index suggests that LSU is 3.5 points better than USC in every field before the Week 1 game, but that is not enough to make up for the current point difference.

When: Sunday, September 1st
Time: 6:30 p.m. CT, 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: ABC Network

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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