Braves vs. Phillies – Predictions, Picks, Odds – 8-31

It's a fierce division battle that continues a four-game series this weekend when the Atlanta Braves face the Philadelphia Phillies.

Nick Castellanos has always used his bat when his team needed it most, and my predictions for the Braves vs. Phillies game are that he will be a hit again tonight.

Find out why in my MLB picks for Saturday, August 31.

Braves vs. Phillies prediction

My best bet
Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Bases (+130 at bet365)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
Nick Castellanos was hot.

In August, his batting average is the best of the season, as are his batting average, RBIs and home runs. He has been performing fairly consistently, and today we're betting that trend will continue, attacking him as the best bet at over 1.5.

A good place to start this bet is what Castellanos has done against Atlanta Braves starter Max Fried over the course of his career. In a nutshell: He's worn him down.

It's a small sample size, but in 15 appearances against Fried, Castellanos has a .400 batting average, a 1.03 OPS and a couple of RBIs. You'd be bucking some trends if you bet on that stop today; not just Castellanos' success, but Fried's struggles — he's been bad lately.

Since the beginning of the month, Fried has only lasted more than five innings once. He's also had some really bad performances, including allowing five runs against the Miami Marlins and four against the Colorado Rockies. They're not exactly the best opponents, so Castellanos should be licking his fingers in this matchup.

Castellanos has been playing his best baseball of the season while the pitcher he's facing is in a serious slump. Add in Castellanos' career success in this matchup and you just can't pass it up. I've rated this at +100, so the +130 number is very attractive.

Braves vs Phillies – Same Game Combo (SGP)

Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Bases

Phillies F5 -0.5

We expect the Philadelphia Phillies to lead after five innings, which would indicate a further decline in Fried's performance at this point.

He hasn't looked like himself lately and there is real concern playing at home against the Phillies.

Why? Fried relies so heavily on the fastball, and the Phillies use it when playing in the Citizens Bank. Their team run value against the four-seam fastball is already a collective top 10 in baseball.

However, in home games, that number jumps into the top 5. I expect a pretty dominant performance from Phillies pitcher Zach Wheeler and that the fastball issues will hurt Fried.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Odds for Braves vs. Phillies

Braves vs Phillies live odds

Braves vs. Phillies Opening Odds

• Money line: Atlanta +122 | Philly -144
• Execute line: Atlanta +1.5 (-176) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+146)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Braves vs Phillies Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• This has been a very competitive series of late, with the Braves holding a small lead in the last 10 games and finishing 6-4 during that span.
• Atlanta has been in great form lately. The Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have gained 2.84 units during that time.
• Philadelphia has also been making bettors a lot of money lately. The Phillies have a 6-4 record in their last 10 games, which has given bettors almost a unit of profit.
• The Phillies have made a lot of money here. Since the opening, the moneyline price has risen by over twenty cents in their direction.

Trend on Braves vs. Phillies

The Braves have hit the first five innings (F5) moneyline in 15 of their last 20 road games (+12.75 units / 47% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies here.

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