Why did Zelenskyy fire Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has relieved Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk of his post as commander of the Air Force, according to a presidential decree published on Friday evening.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has relieved Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk of his post as commander of the Air Force, according to a presidential decree published on Friday evening.

The reason for Oleshchuk's dismissal is not specified in the decree, but the notification came shortly after the loss of the first US F-16 fighter jet in an air battle in Kyiv on Monday. The plane crashed while repelling a massive Russian attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, killing a senior Ukrainian pilot.

In a video message on Friday evening, Zelensky commented on his decision to dismiss the Air Force commander and stressed the need to strengthen defense, protect the population and secure personnel and soldiers.

The Ukrainian Air Force only confirmed the crash on Thursday, three days after the incident.

Lost or shot down by friendly fire?

The delay in confirming the crash raises questions about the circumstances that led to the downing of the jet. Ukrainian MP Mariana Bezuhla claimed on Friday that Ukrainian air defenses shot down the plane by mistake. This is the third case in which Ukraine has lost a jet to friendly fire. She did not provide any evidence for her accusation.

Oleshchuk then accused Bezuhla of undermining the Ukrainian Air Force and US weapons while supporting Russian propaganda. He did not specify the cause of the crash but assured that an investigation would be launched. In a Facebook post on Friday, he said that no information had been withheld and that management and US partners had been immediately informed of the disaster and were participating in the investigation. He added that detailed information about such incidents could not be made public immediately and had to be treated with caution due to the ongoing war.

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Lieutenant General Anatolii Kryvonozhko appointed interim commander

Lieutenant General Anatolii Kryvonozhko has been appointed interim commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, according to a statement from the Army General Staff. Previously, he headed the Central Air Command and conducted operations in the central region of the country.

He takes on this role against the backdrop of ongoing disputes over the loss of the F-16 fighter jet, which have sparked heated debates in Ukraine.

Since US President Joe Biden approved willing European allies to send F-16 aircraft to Ukraine in August 2023, NATO countries have pledged around 65 of these jets.

President Zelensky has dismissed several military commanders following the large-scale invasion of Russia in February 2022. Earlier this year, in February, he removed the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Valery Zalushny. In addition, in June, Lieutenant General Yuriy Sodol was dismissed following public criticism of high casualty rates and allegations of incompetence.

Made in the USA, the F-16 is a renowned fighter jet that has served as the preferred combat aircraft of NATO and numerous air forces around the world for 50 years.

In August 2023, US President Joe Biden approved the stationing of used F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine, but the US will not supply its own aircraft.

Despite Russia's recent gradual advances on the battlefield, its steady progress is increasing while Ukraine is gradually losing ground.

Importance of the F-16 in the Russian-Ukrainian war

The F-16s are designed to strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities, particularly through improved air defenses, but analysts believe these jets alone will not be enough to change the course of the war.

Ukraine has been supplied with F-16 fighter jets, which are expected to perform three main tasks: intercepting Russian missiles and drones, disabling enemy air defense systems, and attacking Russian troop positions and ammunition depots with air-to-ground missiles.

Details about the use of the F-16 remain secret. This includes the exact targeting authorizations from Western governments and the type of weapons that the jets carry.

The F-16s could be equipped with British-made Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles, which have a range of over 250 kilometers and could potentially reach targets inside Russia. They could also be equipped with long-range air-to-air missiles that would pose a threat to Russian bombers and fighter jets. The aircraft's advanced radar systems will allow Ukrainian pilots to identify targets at greater distances than their current MiG-29s, Su-27s and Su-24s.

The destruction of an F-16: What would that mean for Russia?

Russian President Vladimir Putin would probably be pleased at the idea of ​​destroying F-16 fighter jets from NATO countries. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had previously mentioned that the F-16 fighter jets were not a “magic pill” that could change the outcome of the conflict. He also pointed out that the Russian authorities had already offered rewards for soldiers who destroy F-16 fighter jets.

Kremlin forces are expected to try to destroy the F-16s on the ground with long-range missiles, having already targeted Ukraine's few suitable airfields. Analysts expect the Ukrainians will have to park the F-16s in fortified hangars, disperse them at different locations, use decoy models and be prepared for a quick launch in response to airstrike warnings.

Ukraine has indicated that it may station some F-16 fighter jets at foreign bases to protect itself from Russian attacks. Putin then warned that any Western air base with Ukrainian fighter jets would be a “legitimate target” for the Russian armed forces.

F-16 vs. S-300 and S-400

US officials have stated that the F-16s will be based in Ukraine. In the air, the Ukrainian F-16s will face Russia's massive S-300 and S-400 mobile surface-to-air missile systems, which can attack multiple aircraft simultaneously. The Russian military also has several hundred operational fighter jets and modern air surveillance radars. Borsari points out that the Russian Su-35 fighter jet, with its long-range radar, will pose a significant threat to the F-16s, as it can track and attack multiple targets over a wide area.

Nevertheless, the Russians are aware that they will be facing a more powerful air force than they have encountered so far in the war and will therefore probably pursue a more cautious strategy.

As for the protection of the F-16, aviation experts assure that Ukraine has strong defense mechanisms to protect the fighter jets from attacks. It has been reported that Ukraine has effective air defense systems to protect its airfields from Russian attacks, but so far they have been rather unsuccessful.
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