Penn State vs. West Virginia prediction, picks, odds and lines for Week 1 college football

Penn State and West Virginia renew their rivalry on Saturday in a high-profile Big Ten vs. Big 12 matchup that could have a decisive impact on the playoffs later in the first week of college football.

The expansion of the College Football Playoff should benefit Penn State, a good if not great team under head coach James Franklin, whose record against higher-ranked teams has thus far prevented the team from being a serious contender for the Big Ten.

West Virginia won nine games last year to keep head coach Neal Brown out of the proverbial firing line. At home, the team posted a 5-1 record and boasted the third-best running attack in college football, the core of which returns this season under the leadership of dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene.

What do the experts think about the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model predicts the game.

The computers are on the side of the Nittany Lions, who have a dominant 77.7 percent chance of winning the game, according to models that simulate games 20,000 times to pick the winner.

Conversely, the model predicts the Mountaineers will defeat Penn State in the remaining 22.3 percent of its simulations.

According to the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Penn State is the favorite by 8.5 points against West Virginia, with the total score for the game set at 51.5.

The index currently shows that Penn State is 13.8 points better than West Virginia in all areas.

Penn State is projected to win 10.1 games this season, putting it third in the Big Ten with a 59.3 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 6.5 percent chance of winning the national title.

According to the model estimate, West Virginia is expected to win 6.3 games this season and has a 64.7 percent chance of qualifying for the bowl tournaments and a 6.3 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoffs.

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 12pm Eastern Time
TV: Fox Network

The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that can be used to predict a team's future performance.

The rankings and result predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team's season and matches, using a combination of key analytics including past results, quality of opponents, team talent, player recruitment and team schedule.

The teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by projected points advantage per game against an average team on neutral ground.

According to AP Top 25 poll

1. Georgia (46 votes for first place)
2. Ohio State (15)
3. Oregon (1)
4. Texas
5. Alabama
6. Ole Miss
7. Notre-Dame
8. Penn State
9. Michigan
10. State of Florida
11. Missouri
12. Utah
13. LSU
14. Clemson
15. Tennessee
16. Oklahoma
17. State of Oklahoma
18. State of Kansas
19. Miami
20. Texas A&M
21. Arizona
22. Kansas
23. USC
24. NC State
25. Iowa

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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