Miami vs. Florida score prediction by an expert college football model

Week 1 of the 2024 college football season begins Saturday with a notable SEC-ACC non-conference clash featuring two big names from the state, both looking to help their head coaches overcome a major hurdle when Miami and Florida face off in the Swamp.

Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier both posted sub-.500 records during their tenures in Miami and Florida, respectively, and will need to make a strong statement to their fans in this Week 1 matchup, especially since both have very challenging schedules ahead of them in the future, with Florida arguably the toughest nationally.

What does the analytics say about the game? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to take a first look at how Miami and Florida fare in this crucial Week 1 game.

Remarkably, the simulations currently favor the home team, but only by the smallest margin.

SP+ even predicts that Miami and Florida will effectively be tied 30-30, but the outcome will ultimately favor the Gators given their 0.3-point lead.

The model also gives Florida a nearly 51 percent chance of winning the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

According to the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Miami is a 2.5-point favorite against Florida, with the total score for the game set at 54.5.

FanDuel has set the moneyline odds for Miami at -140 and for Florida at +116.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should consider the following…

Other analysis tools also clearly indicate that the Gators will hold their ground in the swamp against the Canes.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and select winners.

The index suggests that Florida will win the game in 57.3 percent of simulations, while the Hurricanes will emerge victorious in the remaining 42.7 percent of simulations.

The model also expects a very close result and currently speculates that Florida will be 0.5 points better than Miami in every area.

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time
TV: ABC Network

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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