Independent poll shows neck-and-neck race in Maryland Senate

The race for Maryland's Senate seat is neck and neck between former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D), according to a new poll commissioned by seniors advocacy group AARP.

The same poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a significant lead over former President Donald Trump in Maryland, suggesting that Hogan is succeeding so far in convincing many voters to split their vote between the political parties.

But the poll also suggests that Hogan may fall just short of the Democratic support he needs for a guaranteed win – and that Alsobrooks, who is currently less well known to voters, has even more room to move up in the final two months of the campaign.

The race for the Senate seat “literally couldn’t be more exciting,” Bob Ward, one of the two pollsters who designed and conducted the survey, said Monday in a Zoom call with Maryland Matters.

Ward of the Republican polling firm Fabrizio Ward and Jeff Liszt of the Democratic firm Impact Research are conducting surveys for AARP in ten states with contested elections.

In the race for Maryland's Senate seat, Alsobrooks and Hogan each received 46%, with 7% of respondents undecided and 1% favoring other candidates. The poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Aug. 14-20 and had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Among independent voters, Hogan had a clear lead of 55% to 32% over Alsobrooks, while her lead among Democrats was 68% to 26%.

“That’s obviously what’s keeping him in the race,” Ward said.

Both candidates were viewed quite positively by voters, but Hogan was better known and another part of the political dynamic in the state.

“We haven't seen a survey like this this year,” said Liszt. “It's about name recognition.”

Hogan was viewed favorably by 59% of voters, while 28% viewed him negatively. Alsobrooks was viewed favorably by 41% of voters, while 16% viewed him negatively. That's a large gap in name recognition, meaning she'll have to spend more time and resources making herself known to voters across the state.

Pollsters also over-polled older voters and black voters in Maryland, two key voting blocs. Eighty-seven percent of Maryland voters over 50 said their motivation to vote was a 10 out of 10, compared to just 70 percent of voters ages 18 to 49 who expressed the same enthusiasm. In the 2022 midterm elections, those over 50 made up 62 percent of Maryland voters.

“We have learned that candidates in Maryland should pay attention to the concerns of older voters,” said Hank Greenberg, AARP director for Maryland.

Among voters over 50, the race for the Senate seat is very close: Hogan leads 47% to 45%, which is within the poll's margin of error. In that broad demographic, he leads Alsobrooks 52% to 39% among voters 50 to 64, while she leads 51% to 43% among voters 65 and older.

According to pollsters, voters in the 50-64 age group across the country generally lean Republican, while those over 65, the aging baby boomer generation, remain more liberal.

Black voters make up about 30 percent of the electorate in Maryland. They are a strong supporter of Harris in the White House race, but their attitude could prove decisive in the Senate race. Alsobrooks wants to make history there and become the third black woman elected to the U.S. Senate – and the first from Maryland.

Alsobrooks leads by a whopping 52 points among black voters over 50. But the race is much closer among black voters ages 18 to 49, with Alsobrooks leading by 18 points. In his successful gubernatorial runs in 2014 and 2018, Hogan received about 30% of the Democratic vote, and in 2018 he also received about 30% of the black vote, even though his Democratic challenger, Ben Jealous, was black.

AARP pollsters said Alsobrooks' lower support among younger black voters was largely due to her lower name recognition among that demographic compared to older black voters. Overall, Hogan leads Alsobrooks 50% to 40% among voters of all races ages 18 to 34 — also due to her significantly lower name recognition among voters in that age group.

Hogan's ability to remain competitive against Alsobrooks in a predominantly Democratic state could depend on his ability to keep his vote totals among black voters and Democrats in the 30 percent range.

“The state has the highest percentage of ballot splinters we've ever seen, especially among voters over 50,” Liszt said. “But the fundamentals and the presidential election suggest that you would bet on the Democrats to win.”

Presidential election campaign: Harris is ahead

According to the poll, Harris will have no problems winning the state by a large margin in the White House election.

In a head-to-head comparison with Trump, she was ahead 64% to 32%, with 3% undecided and 1% saying they preferred someone else. In a test of all presidential candidates, Harris received 59% to 29% for Trump. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who suspended his campaign last week and endorsed Trump, although he will remain on the ballot in Maryland — polled at 5%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each received 1%.

This is consistent with the results of the 2020 presidential election, when President Biden received 65% of the vote in Maryland compared to Trump's 32%.

In Maryland, Harris led all demographics except Republicans, where Trump unsurprisingly had a lead of 83% to 14%.

In the poll, Harris was viewed favorably by 61% of voters, while 33% viewed her unfavorably. Trump's ratings were below average: 30% viewed him favorably and 65% unfavorably. Biden's favorable rating was 51% to 42%. Governor Wes Moore (D) was viewed favorably by 57% of voters, while 21% viewed her unfavorably.

Priorities for seniors

In the poll, 52 percent of older voters in Maryland said Social Security is or will be an important source of income for them, and 79 percent said candidates' positions on Social Security were “extremely or very important” to their voting decision in November – the highest priority of all issues surveyed.

Sixteen percent of older voters identified themselves as swing voters, who will not vote for a specific slate in either the presidential or Senate elections. Economic issues were most important to swing voters, with personal economic issues such as inflation, Social Security, jobs and taxes being the top issues they cared about most.

Swing voters were more likely to be family caregivers: one-third of swing voters over 50 described themselves as family caregivers. For this demographic, issues such as social security and Medicare price negotiations are disproportionately important.

“The economy is really the backdrop of this election,” Wade said. He added that many elections this year are impossible to predict: “Anything can happen. It's 2024.”

Maryland Matters is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) nonprofit organization. Maryland Matters maintains its editorial independence. If you have questions, contact Editor Steve Crane at [email protected]. Follow Maryland Matters on Facebook and X.

You might also like