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Heat forecasts for the US by county show unequal impacts of climate change

By Hudson Brooklyn
Heat forecasts for the US by county show unequal impacts of climate change

Climate change will have significant, albeit uneven, impacts on temperatures in the United States within two decades, according to a USA TODAY analysis of climate projection data.

The Gulf Coast could see a significant increase in extreme heat. Large parts of the northern United States could experience dramatic warming. And across the country, more Americans could be exposed to the damaging effects of heat.

These findings are part of a USA TODAY analysis of data from the Climate Impact Lab. The analysis uses county-level temperature projections to determine how annual warming and extreme heat are expected to change between 2020 and 2040.

Like most climate forecasts, this data shows the country warming over the next two decades. However, the analysis also shows that cooler regions of the U.S. could see a significant increase in average annual temperatures. Hotter regions, meanwhile, are expected to see the largest increase in days with temperatures above 90 degrees.

“We're already seeing increased warming and extreme heat across the country,” says Kelly McCusker, a climate scientist at the Climate Impact Lab. “I think a lot about how this is going to get worse… and how this heat is affecting people unequally.”

How much warmer will it get in your district?

Search for your county to see how the heat might impact you in the near future.

Here’s what you should know about the projections:

USA TODAY used data from climate models that make two main assumptions. First, future population and economic growth will follow historical patterns. Second, strong climate policies will enable significant emissions reductions by 2100.

Scientists refer to these assumptions as a “medium” scenario regarding how social and economic changes could affect the development of climate change.

Technically, the scenario is called SSP2-4.5 and is just one of many possible climate scenarios.

USA TODAY has divided counties with similar warming increases into three categories.

  • A “significant” increase in average annual temperatures of 2.6 to 4.5 degrees is expected in around 1,100 districts.
  • More than 1,600 counties with an increase between 2.1 and 2.6 degrees could experience “moderate” warming
  • Only 517 counties are likely to experience “minimal” warming: an increase in annual temperatures of 1.0 to 2.1 degrees

These boundaries were chosen because they represent natural “breaks” in the data distribution.

Significantly higher temperatures for cooler regions

In the US regions known for their cooler climates, temperatures are expected to rise sharply by 2040.

  • Northern Alaska there could be more warming there than in any other part of the country.
  • Parts of the Great Plains and Midwest Temperatures are expected to warm by more than 3 degrees.
  • Most counties A warming of 2.1 to 2.5 degrees is expected.
  • Districts along the East and West Coast is likely to experience the least warming.

Alaska's northernmost county is expected to warm faster than any other, with average annual temperatures expected to rise 4.5 degrees by 2040. Research suggests that regions around the Arctic are experiencing up to three times more warming than other parts of the planet due to a phenomenon called polar amplification. Parts of Alaska lie within the Arctic Circle, and the state has already warmed more than the 48 states further down since 1970.

Sustained warming in these areas could affect the distribution and availability of fish and game on which rural Alaskans depend for survival. Warming in other parts of the United States could have similar consequences for food supplies.

Heating the water: Alaska's snow crabs have suddenly disappeared. Will history repeat itself as waters warm?

A quarter of the U.S.'s cropland is in the Great Plains, where a three-degree rise in temperature could have a huge impact on agriculture. Greater warming in this region could extend the frost-free season, but also increase heat-related crop losses. The federal government's weather-related crop insurance payments have already increased significantly since 2001, with heat as a cause of losses increasing by more than 1,000 percent, according to an Environmental Working Group analysis of Department of Agriculture data.

“Economic dependence on crops, pastures and recreation makes residents who rely on the land for their livelihoods vulnerable to climate-related weather changes,” the fifth national climate assessment says. Sustained warming in this region could have uncertain consequences for local farmers.

There is also bad news for areas where no major warming is expected.

Coastal areas are generally expected to experience less warming than inland areas, but experts warn that these places may not be safe from the effects of climate change.

“It's actually a sleight of hand trick that makes it seem as if they've fared better,” warns climate researcher Brian Brettschneider. “But in reality they haven't fared any better.”

While such countries can stay cooler because the ocean absorbs and distributes large amounts of heat, these regions remain vulnerable to more frequent flooding due to rising sea levels and extreme rainfall, as well as damage from powerful tropical storms.

Dangerous heat increases in warmer regions

Many counties that already experience warm weather are forecast to experience many more days of dangerous heat over the next two decades.

USA TODAY grouped counties based on the number of additional days of temperatures above 90 degrees they may experience.

  • The “strongest” increase is expected in more than 1,000 counties: more than 21 additional days with temperatures above 90 degrees
  • Nearly 750 counties with 14 to 21 additional days above 90 degrees could see a “greater” increase in extreme heat, while nearly 640 counties with 7 to 14 additional days could expect only “some” extreme heat.
  • About 830 counties are expected to see “a few” additional days of extreme heat: fewer than 7 additional days with temperatures above 90 degrees

These categories also closely resemble the natural “breaks” in the data distribution.

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These groupings show regions where the risk of extreme heat could increase significantly:

  • Districts in the Florida Peninsula are expected to see the biggest increase in days with temperatures above 90 degrees
  • The Southeast And Parts of the Midwest There may be over three more weeks of extreme heat, although these days will likely be spread throughout the year.

At best, extreme heat can be uncomfortable and make it difficult to concentrate while studying or working. At worst, it can be deadly. Heat is already the leading cause of climate-related deaths in the United States, and more days with temperatures above 90 degrees Fahrenheit could increase the number of heat-related deaths and illnesses.

Extreme heat kills and maims. Here are some of the victims from across the United States.

When air temperatures exceed 90 degrees, the human body absorbs more heat than it can release. Sweating can cool the body further, but in particularly hot and humid climates, sweat may not evaporate quickly enough, causing body temperature to rise to dangerous levels.

Young children and the elderly are at highest risk of heat-related health complications, especially if they have pre-existing medical conditions.

Although extreme heat can overwhelm people accustomed to warmer climates, it poses the greatest danger in places that are not prepared for hot weather.

“You can imagine that a local elementary school may not have air conditioning yet, and that has real consequences when it's a 32-degree day in a town that's not used to it,” McCusker said.

Creating more green spaces in urban areas, installing more air conditioning and building cooling centers can protect people from the worst effects of the heat. However, not all communities have the financial means to implement these solutions.

Across the country, escaping the effects of climate change may become more difficult. While historically cooler regions are getting significantly warmer, hotter regions are facing dangerous levels of heat.

People might be able to adapt to a country that is warming rapidly, but “we have the opportunity now to mitigate the worst impacts simply by reducing emissions now,” McCusker says. “And we have shown that lives can be saved.”

Abhinav Krishnan is a climate data intern at USA TODAY. You can reach him at @AbhinavSKrish.

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