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Kamala Harris overtakes Donald Trump in 2024 election poll

Kamala Harris overtakes Donald Trump in 2024 election poll


Harris has succeeded in doing what Biden never managed this year: leading Trump.

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  • Kamala Harris has overtaken Donald Trump 48% to 43% in a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.
  • The results reflect an eight percentage point turnaround in the presidential campaign since the end of June.

According to a new poll by USA TODAY and Suffolk University, Democrat Kamala Harris is well ahead of Republican Donald Trump, 48% to 43%.

The results reflect an eight percentage point turnaround in the presidential race since late June, when Trump was nearly four percentage points ahead of President Joe Biden in the poll.

The vice president's narrow lead comes on the back of big shifts in some key demographic groups that have traditionally been crucial for Democrats, including Hispanic and black voters and young people. Those making less than $20,000 a year have seen the biggest change: Trump's three-percentage-point lead over Biden in June has become Harris' 23-percentage-point lead over Trump in August.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters, conducted by landline and cellphone Sunday through Wednesday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. As the election draws closer, the poll now includes likely voters; previous polls looked at registered voters.

Harris has succeeded in doing what Biden never managed this year: leading Trump.

Without the usual rounding of the results, their lead would be four rather than five points, namely 47.6% to 43.3%.

More: Georgia is Harris' concern: Vice President wants to win voters at first stop after party convention

The success of “Brat Summer” and targeted appeals

The results underscore the success of the targeted appeals at the Democratic Party Convention last week in Chicago.

“As the 'Brat Summer' of Kamala Harris emojis has ended, young people, people of color and low-income households have dramatically turned out for the vice president,” said David Paleologos, director of the Center for Policy Research at Suffolk University. “These demographics were highlighted and linked by numerous speakers at the convention.”

The biggest changes since June, all of which are outside the poll's margin of error, include:

  • Among voters ages 18 to 34, support for Trump rose 11 percentage points to 13 percentage points (49% to 36%).
  • Among Hispanics, a demographic specifically courted in the Republican campaign, support for Trump rose from 2 percentage points to 16 percentage points (53% to 37%) for Harris.
  • Black voters, traditionally one of the strongest Democratic groups, increased their support for Biden by 47 percentage points to 64 percentage points (76% to 12%).

Low-income voters currently support Harris 58% to 35%. She has stressed her commitment to creating an “economy of opportunity” that makes housing more affordable and cracks down on food price gouging, though she has not yet released detailed policy plans.

More: “Angry”: Veterans criticize Trump’s team’s confrontation at Arlington National Cemetery

“I am very happy to vote for a woman”

Voters of all stripes say the election was a game-changer. Harris is the first woman of color and the first person of South Asian descent to be nominated as a major party's presidential candidate. At 59, she is a generation younger than Trump, the former president, who is 78, and Biden, who is 81.

“I think people are cautiously optimistic that they're going to have a much better chance with Harris than if Biden had run against Trump,” said Amy Hendrix, 46, of Fort Worth. She is an independent who usually votes Democratic and was one of those who participated in the poll. “I'm very happy to be voting for a woman, and that's just the truth.”

But Jason Streem, also 46, a dentist from suburban Cleveland who supports Trump, objected to the way Harris became the candidate.

“She was never part of the application process,” he said in a follow-up interview. “She never received the votes in the primary.” He called it “the most undemocratic way to select a candidate.”

Biden announced his withdrawal from the re-election race just over a month ago under pressure from party leaders and donors who feared he could not win, opening the door for an unprecedented rapid switch to Harris as the candidate for the nomination.

In the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll, Biden's vote share never exceeded 37.5% this year, and his lead over Trump ranged from just half a percentage point last spring — virtually a tie — to nearly four percentage points immediately after the Biden-Trump debate in early summer.

This was the first poll since independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump. Independent Cornel West is now at 2%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver are each at 1%.

When voters who supported third-party candidates were asked about their second choice, 32% said Harris, 24% said West and 15% said Trump.

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