Polls in the swing states for August 2024: Tie in the presidential election in the swing states

Democratic candidates at the state level lead over Republican candidates

According to New Emerson College Polling/The Hill polls in the swing states, Vice President Kamala Harris is neck and neck with former President Donald Trump. Harris has a narrow lead over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%) and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-percent lead over Harris (49% to 48%), and in Arizona, Trump is ahead by three percentage points (50% to 47%).

“The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains close, within the margin of error of both states,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

“Harris is ahead of Trump among independents in every state except Nevada, where Trump leads 50% to 44%. There is also a stark gender gap, similar to 2020. Harris is ahead of Trump among women in six of the seven swing states, but in Arizona, Trump has a two-percentage-point lead over Harris among female voters, a group that voted for Biden by about three percentage points in 2020.”

• Independent voters
  • AZ: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
  • GA: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
  • MI: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
  • NC: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
  • NV: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
  • PA: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
  • Wisconsin: Harris 52%, Trump 43%

• Voters under 30
  • AZ: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
  • GA: Harris 60%, Trump 35%
  • MI: Harris 62%, Trump 32%
  • NC: Harris 55%, Trump 39%
  • NV: Harris 70%, Trump 28%
  • PA: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
  • Wisconsin: Harris 54%, Trump 41%
• Voters
  • AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
  • GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%
  • MI: Harris 56%, Trump 41%
  • NC: Harris 53%, Trump 46%
  • NV: Harris 53%, Trump 44%
  • PA: Harris 54%, Trump 42%
  • Wisconsin: Harris 54%, Trump 43%
• Male voters
  • AZ: Trump 52%, Harris 46%
  • GA: Trump 53%, Harris 43%
  • MI: Trump 54%, Harris 43%
  • NC: Trump 53%, Harris 43%
  • NV: Trump 52%, Harris 45%
  • PA: Trump 55%, Harris 41%
  • Wisconsin: Trump 55%, Harris 42%

Nationwide elections

In Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Democratic candidate is ahead of the Republican candidate in the Senate and gubernatorial elections, respectively.

• AZ Senate: Democrat Ruben Gallego 49%, Republican Kari Lake 42%
• Michigan Senate: Democrat Elissa Slotkin 47%, Republican Mike Rogers 41%.
• NV Senate: Democrat Jacky Rosen 50%, Republican Sam Brown 40%

• Governor of North Carolina: Democrat Josh Stein 47%, Republican Mark Robinson 41%.
• Pennsylvania Senate: Democratic Senator Bob Casey 48%, Republican Dave McCormick 44%
• WI Senate: Democrat Tammy Baldwin 49%, Republican Eric Hovde 48%.

Main topics

• AZ: 31% economy, 26% immigration, 13% affordable housing
• GA: 44% economy, 11% housing affordability, 10% threats to democracy
• MI: 44% economy, 11% threats to democracy, 10% housing affordability
• NC: 48% economy, 9% healthcare, 8% education
• NV: 37% economy, 15% affordable housing, 13% immigration
• PA: 51% economy, 11% threats to democracy, 8% immigration
• WI: 46% economy, 13% threats to democracy, 7% housing affordability

Voters were asked whether Project 2025 makes them more or less likely to support Donald Trump, or whether it has no impact. Overall, a majority in all states say it makes no difference or they are unfamiliar with it.

• AZ: 13% more likely, 38% less likely, 37% no difference, 13% not known
  • Independent: 7% more likely, 41% less likely, 40% no difference, 11% not known
• GA: 15% more likely, 37% less likely, 36% no difference, 13% not known
  • Independent: 12% more likely, 41% less likely, 37% no difference, 10% not known
• MI: 15% more likely, 39% less likely, 34% no difference, 12% not known
  • Independent: 10% more likely, 39% less likely, 40% no difference, 11% not known
• NC: 17% more likely, 35% less likely, 37% no difference, 11% not known
  • Independent: 10% more likely, 42% less likely, 41% no difference, 7% not known
• NV: 14% more likely, 39% less likely, 37% no difference, 10% not known
  • Independent: 12% more likely, 39% less likely, 41% no difference, 9% not known
• PA: 14% more likely, 37% less likely, 37% no difference, 13% not known
  • Independent: 5% more likely, 45% less likely, 36% no difference, 15% not known
• WI: 13% more likely, 38% less likely, 38% no difference, 11% not known
  • Independent: 5% more likely, 46% less likely, 39% no difference, 11% not known

Voters were asked whether the tax on tips should be eliminated or whether tips should remain taxable.

• AZ: 74% taxes on tips should be abolished, 14% tips should remain taxable, 12% uncertain
• GA: 74% taxes on tips should be abolished, 12% tips should remain taxable, 15% uncertain
• MI: 65% tax on tips should be abolished, 17% tips should remain taxable, 18% uncertain
• NC: 70% taxes on tips should be abolished, 18% tips should remain taxable, 12% uncertain
• NV: 71% of respondents believe that taxes on tips should be abolished, 17% should remain taxable, 12% are not sure
• PA: 68% taxes on tips should be abolished, 17% tips should remain taxable, 15% uncertain
• WI: 66% taxes on tips should be abolished, 20% tips should remain taxable, 15% uncertain

Voters were asked how they think President Biden will go down in history – as an outstanding president, above average, average, below average or poor.

• AZ: 19% excellent president, 15% above average, 14% average, 13% below average, 39% bad
  • Independents: 18% excellent, 16% above average, 13% average, 14% below average, 40% poor
• GA: 20% excellent, 16% above average, 14% average, 14% below average, 36% poor
  • Independents: 20% excellent, 20% above average, 14% average, 13% below average, 34% poor
• MI: 20% excellent, 16% above average, 15% average, 13% below average, 36% unsatisfactory
  • Independents: 18% excellent, 19% above average, 15% average, 16% below average, 32% poor
• NC: 18% excellent, 16% above average, 18% average, 13% below average, 35% unsatisfactory
  • Independents: 13% excellent, 19% above average, 21% average, 13% below average, 34% poor
• NV: 17% excellent, 18% above average, 14% average, 12% below average, 39% poor
  • Independents: 11% excellent, 18% above average, 15% average, 14% below average, 42% poor
• PA: 17% excellent, 18% above average, 15% average, 16% below average, 35% poor
  • Independents: 13% excellent, 16% above average, 24% average, 20% below average, 26% poor
• WI: 19% excellent, 17% above average, 14% average, 14% below average, 36% unsatisfactory
  • Independents: 15% excellent, 24% above average, 16% average, 13% below average, 33% poor

methodology

The sample size for Arizona is n=720 likely voters with a credibility interval of +/-3.6%. The sample size for Georgia and Michigan is n=800 per state with a credibility interval of +/-3.4% for each state. The sample size in Pennsylvania is n=950 with a credibility interval of +/-3.1%. The sample size for Nevada is n=1,168 with a credibility interval of +/-2.8%. The sample size for North Carolina is n=775 with a credibility interval of +/-3.5%. The sample size for Wisconsin is n=850 with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The data were weighted by nationwide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education (US Census) and voter registration (Secretary of State), as well as voter turnout data (Election Day Poll).

The survey was conducted by contacting respondents' cell phones via MMS-to-Web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response. Respondents were provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English. Data was collected between August 25 and 28, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity entail higher credibility intervals because the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the range of values ​​of the survey, and one should know that with a 95% confidence interval, a survey will be outside the range of values ​​1 in 20 times.

FULL RESULTS