Reports reveal untapped potential to mobilize voters of color in swing states

With swing states playing a critical role in the 2024 presidential election, new reports from the Center for Inclusive Democracy (CID) at USC's Sol Price School of Public Policy have found significant disparities in voter turnout between white, non-Latino voters and voters of color in all nine swing states.

The reports highlight the persistent “voter representation gap,” where voters of color remain underrepresented in the election despite significant population growth. If that gap is narrowed by November, the study concludes, it could significantly affect election outcomes, especially in swing states where the 2020 election results were particularly close.

CID analyzed voter files from the 2020 general election for Latino, Black and Asian American voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Texas. The study found that while the number of eligible voters of color in these swing states increased significantly from 2010 to 2020—outpacing the growth of the white, non-Latino population and often the overall population—these voters of color consistently had lower turnout rates than white, non-Latino voters in the 2020 election.

“The large number of eligible voters among communities of color in swing states presents an extraordinary opportunity for voter mobilization and participation,” said CID Director Mindy Romero, the study's lead author. “Getting more voters of color to the polls could be transformative and affect the outcome of the election in November. The participation of these groups and all voters is fundamental to our democratic values ​​and processes.”

Here you can find the individual reports for each swing state. Some notable results in selected states are:

• Arizona: More than 850,000 eligible Asian American, Black and Latino voters did not cast their ballots in Arizona's 2020 presidential election. The electorate's margin was only 10,457 votes.

• Florida: In the 2020 general election, eligible Asian American, Black and Latino voters made up more than a third of Florida's electorate. Yet a significant number of those voters – 2.2 million – did not cast their ballots. That number is nearly six times larger than the margin of victory in the state.

• Georgia: Despite rapid growth in Latino, Black and Asian American voters, more than 1.2 million people did not vote in 2020. That's more than 100 times the state's margin.

At the beginning of the year, the CID published a national report on voter turnout.

The report, “The New Electorate: The Strength of the Latino, Black and Asian-American Vote,” found that Asian-American, Black and Latino voters made up nearly 30% of eligible voters in the U.S. in the 2020 presidential election but represented just over 22% of all votes cast, well below their share of the electorate. The report found that this deep-rooted gap in voter representation is clearly evident in nearly all U.S. elections.