Yankees vs. Nationals: Predictions, Tips, Odds – 8-28

The New York Yankees' winning streak stalled on Tuesday when they failed to score on offense and lost 4-2 to the Washington Nationals. But they have a chance to score another series win on Wednesday as Carlos Rodon is headed to face MacKenzie Gore.

New York's struggles against lefties have been well-documented this season, so don't expect too much from a lineup that was cooled by another lefty just 24 hours ago. The Nationals' offense remains subpar against any handedness, too.

My predictions for the Yankees vs. Nationals game and my MLB picks for August 28th assume that there will be few runs scored and that Aaron Judge will also have some problems.

Yankees vs. Nationals prediction

My best bet
Under 9 (-106 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The New York Yankees still lead baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, but they were significantly worse in the reverse split with a measly wRC+ of 106, which ranks 13th in baseball. They have had more strikeouts in this split, although they mask those problems with more walks, but the big difference may be the 40-point deficit in isolated power.

That should benefit MacKenzie Gore, who has struggled to limit his hits all season but has a .402 expected slugging rating that's only a few points above the league average. He's shown good strikeout potential with a 24.4% punchout rate in two and a half seasons at this level, and with an eye for fly balls, should shut New York down just like Patrick Corbin did a year ago.

Similar to right-handed pitchers, New York is still in the top three in the league in OPS against groundball pitchers, but it is well outside the top 10 against flyball pitchers.

But the same can be said for the Washington Nationals, a team that ranks 27th in wRC+ against lefties, rather than 17th the other way around. Many of their reliable hitters are left-handed, and without Lane Thomas, they lack that true left-hander to keep the team afloat. They also lost Alex Call, a bright spot in the second half, to a season-ending foot injury.

Washington isn't striking out very often this year, and like many contact-oriented teams, it has favored groundball pitchers. Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyballer who has rocked the strike zone, and I think he'll throw a lot of outs through the air against a team that's weakened and already in platoon difference.

Count on both pitchers to keep things relatively quiet.

Aaron Judge Player Prop

My best bet
Aaron Judge under 2.5 H+R+RBI (+105 at DraftKings)

My analysis

While the Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitchers, the same cannot be said for Aaron Judge. The giant is hitting a wonderful .316 batting average in the split with a massive .456 isolated power and has walked 26.6% of those at-bats, which is a high strikeout rate.

Gore has done OK in terms of strikeouts, but the walks are something I'm going to harp on here considering he's been bad in that category and Judge has drawn walks like no other. I expect Judge to get a walk at least once here, which could make it difficult for him to get hits, and the Yankees' performance has been so poor against lefties that I'm not sure he'll score or get RBI opportunities in this game. We're priced out of several markets, so we'll have to go with this one.

Yankees vs. Nationals – Same Game Combo (SGP)

Under 9

MacKenzie Gore 5+ Strikeouts

Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Walks

Left-handed hitters have had a lot of fun pitching for the Yankees this year. We've seen two left-handed hitters in a row record five or more strikeouts to start this series, and I believe we're headed for a third with Gore touching the plate.

Yes, the strikeout rate isn't quite where we'd like it to be heading into this game, but Gore has still benched six batters in two of his last four starts and will face a Yankees team whose left-handed strikeout rate is up a full percentage point. There are a lot of culprits in this lineup, and since I expect him to go a lot of innings, Gore should come home with five Ks.

I also don't find it surprising that Judge is getting walks here, given what we discussed above. A 26.6% walk rate against lefties over nearly an entire season is ridiculous, and Gore has gotten walks on over 9% of the batters he faced this year, with a concerning 10 walks in 20 2/3 innings this month.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Odds for Yankees vs. Nationals

Yankees vs. Nationals – Live Odds

Yankees vs. Nationals Opening Odds

• Money line: New York -195 | Washington +155
• Execute line: New York -1.5 (-130) | Washington +1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Yankees vs. Nationals Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• The Nationals entered this game as a +155 underdog, but the home underdog odds have since risen to +170.
• New York accounted for a whopping 88% of bets and 86% of moneyline turnover on DraftKings.
• The total number remains at the starting number 9 and after some early actions at the lower value tends back up towards 9.5.
• While only 46% of the tickets are for the Over Here, 90% of the money goes there.

Yankees vs. Nationals Trend

The Yankees have hit the over in 59 of their last 98 games (+17.65 units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Nationals here.

Game info Yankees vs. Nationals

Yankees vs. Nationals: Latest Injuries

Weather Yankees vs. Nationals

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