Stabbing in Solingen raises fears of renewed flare-up of jihadism in Germany

Three people were killed and eight others injured in a brutal knife attack last Friday in Solingen, a German city of just over 160,000 inhabitants. The tragedy occurred during the “Festival of Diversity” in Solingen's central square, where thousands had gathered to celebrate the city's 650th anniversary. The following day, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack on its news site Amaq, saying the perpetrator had specifically targeted Christians and was a “soldier of the Islamic State” who wanted to “avenge Muslims in Palestine and elsewhere.”

Initial investigations led to the arrest of a 15-year-old boy who allegedly knew about the attack and had spoken to the perpetrator before the stabbings. Later, after a large-scale manhunt, a 26-year-old Syrian, identified only as Issa Al H due to German data protection law, turned himself in to police. Al H, who had applied for asylum in Germany and was living in a refugee shelter in Solingen, acted out of “radical Islamist beliefs” and wanted to kill as many “infidels” as possible, according to prosecutors. He deliberately targeted his victims by repeatedly stabbing them in the neck. The perpetrator was denied asylum and was set to be deported to Bulgaria, although he found a way to stay in the country – a fact that is increasingly coming under scrutiny as German politicians promise to toughen deportation measures.

The attack in Solingen is not an isolated incident, but part of a disturbing trend, as demonstrated by other recently foiled terrorist attacks across Europe linked to the Islamic State. Earlier this month, authorities foiled an attack on a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna, where suspects who had pledged allegiance to the group online planned to detonate explosives among concertgoers. Similarly, in late June, German police foiled a terrorist attack on the Euro 2024 soccer championships, just hours before the final between England and Spain. These incidents have reignited concerns about jihadist terrorism, particularly as groups like the Islamic State increasingly use social media to radicalize so-called lone actors and expand their sphere of influence beyond traditional strongholds.

According to Germany's Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), part of the Islamic State's social media strategy is to exploit global political tensions, particularly the violence against Palestinians during the Israel-Gaza conflict and the 2023 Koran burnings in various Scandinavian countries, to reinforce a “West versus Islam” narrative. In its latest annual report, the BfV highlights how the group has exploited these political events to reorganize and recruit new members, using heightened emotions to incite violence and spread extremist rhetoric.

However, the rise in Islamist extremist activity is not occurring in isolation. As Islamist extremists are increasingly motivated by these political events, right-wing extremists are also responding. Experts therefore warn of “mutual radicalization” – a dangerous cycle in which seemingly opposing extremist ideologies reinforce and escalate each other. Although there is little empirical evidence on the extent to which extremist groups escalate in direct response to each other, experts point out that the views of both extremes appear to be hardening.

Particularly after the Solingen attack, far-right politicians in Germany were quick to use the incident, particularly the fact that the attacker was an asylum seeker, to reinforce the narrative that Muslim immigrants posed a significant threat. Shortly after news of the stabbing came to light, Björn Höcke, a prominent figure in the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), released a video showing emergency vehicles at the scene and calling on Germans to “free themselves from multiculturalism.” The AfD has made immigration and refugee settlement a staple of its political platform, and earlier this year it was revealed that party members had met with other prominent far-right figures, including extremist Martin Sellner, to discuss the forcible deportation of millions of immigrants from Germany, including naturalized citizens.

Friedrich Merz, chairman of the CDU, echoed this sentiment after it was confirmed that the suspect was a Syrian national. He called for an immediate halt to Germany accepting refugees from Syria and Afghanistan. In addition, coverage of the incident was flooded with commentary attributing the violence to Germany's supposedly lenient immigration policy.

This reaction echoes recent events in the UK, where the stabbing of three young girls at a Taylor Swift dance party in August sparked violent right-wing riots. Protesters driven by anti-immigration sentiment smashed car windows, broke windows, attacked mosques and set fire to two hotels housing asylum seekers after false rumours emerged that the attacker was a Muslim immigrant. The riots continued even after the rumour about the perpetrator's background was debunked. Following the protests, various Muslim preachers across the UK took to social media to publicly accuse those involved in the riots of being “Zionists” and puppets of the Israeli government, further deepening mutual anger and distrust.

In an already tense political climate in Germany, where immigration debates dominate public discourse, the attack in Solingen – which occurred just a week before crucial state elections – has further deepened polarisation and stoked popular fears. Moreover, the incident provides the AfD with an opportunity not only to link the violence to its anti-immigration stance, but also to re-orient its image following mass protests in Germany earlier this year against the party's participation in the meeting with Sellner and other far-right figures. Given that the party has shown itself to be adept at exploiting such moments, predictions that its links to the broader European far right would lead to lower political support or worse electoral results appear premature.

The increasing societal polarization is further exacerbated by the increasing use of social media by both Islamists and right-wing extremists to spread their divisive rhetoric. The situation is further exacerbated by elements of this rhetoric being incorporated into public discourse by political parties and politicians such as the AfD, further exacerbating tensions. In this volatile environment, Europe must be prepared to confront these twin, often intensifying threats, knowing that failure to do so could potentially lead to an even greater cycle of violence.