Weather on election day and football victories could decide the election

The current presidential election campaign between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is developing into an extremely close race. Numerous last-minute factors could bring votes to one candidate or the other. Current economic news, international conflicts, personal slip-ups or revelations – all of these could be enough to influence the election.

In addition, there are factors that have absolutely nothing to do with the candidates themselves or the national and international conditions, but can still influence a close election. These factors could be called random factors.

The most famous of these wildcards is the weather on election day. As I write in my recent book, The Random Factor, the weather is notoriously difficult to predict because of its random nature. Yet it can have a decisive influence on who wins or loses a close election.

Fair weather friends

Research has shown that bad weather, such as rain or snow, tends to reduce voter turnout. For less motivated voters, bad weather may be enough to keep them from voting on Election Day.

Studies generally show that this tends to benefit the Republican candidate. One reason for this is analysis that has shown that there is a slightly higher percentage of less engaged voters among Democrats than among Republicans.

As a result, when the weather is bad, slightly fewer Democratic voters show up to vote for their candidate and a slightly larger percentage of voters vote for the Republican candidate.

There have been two elections in recent history where weather had a direct impact on the outcome. The first was the extremely close election between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960, with 118,000 votes separating the two. According to researchers, had there been much more rain and snow on election day, Nixon would have won the states of Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, and thus the presidency, by a comfortable margin.

The other presidential election that was affected by weather was the race between George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2000. The election fell on Florida, where Bush won by 537 votes. Much was made of the controversies surrounding the butterfly ballot, the hanging ballots, the suspension of vote counting, and so on. But had the weather been drier in several Florida counties that day, Gore would likely have won the state and become the 43rd President of the United States.

Heavy rain may occur

Could the weather on November 5, 2024 affect the election outcome? The answer is certainly yes.

The battle between Harris and Trump could well come down to the states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. All three states will experience extremely changeable weather conditions in early November. Harris may win the election due to favorable weather in one or more of these states, or Trump may win due to poor weather in certain key counties.

The fact that bad weather traditionally benefits Republican candidates may be one reason why the Republican Party and Trump are much more opposed to allowing early or mail-in voting. This type of voting eliminates the weather effect and thus neutralizes a Republican advantage that may arise on Election Day.

“Subtle power of irrelevant events”

Although weather is the most well-known random factor that can affect an election, there is another interesting element that could influence the outcome. Researchers have found that voters are slightly more likely to vote for the incumbent in a presidential election when the home sports team is doing well, particularly when the college football team wins in the ten days before the election.

Researchers Andrew Healy, Neil Malhotra and Cecilia Hyunjung Mo write: “We find clear evidence that the successes and failures of the local college football team before election day significantly affect the electoral prospects of the incumbent party. This suggests that voters reward or punish incumbents for changes in their well-being that have nothing to do with government performance.”

The researchers describe what they call “the subtle power of irrelevant events in shaping important decisions in the real world.” They explain that the reason for this effect is that when one's team performs well, one can also experience a psychological boost. And voters who are satisfied with themselves and their immediate situation are more likely to vote for the incumbent than the challenger.

Although Harris is not an incumbent, she is the sitting vice president and could therefore benefit from such an effect.

The moral of this story is that the Trump team should pray for inclement weather and hope that the Big Ten football teams in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania suffer devastating defeats on Saturday, November 2, while the Harris team should hope for clear skies and triumphant Big Ten victories on Election Day.