Harris campaign could revive Democratic voter activity in Iowa

DES MOINES, Iowa (Gray Media Iowa Capitol Bureau) – In recent years, thousands more Iowans have registered to vote as Republicans than Democrats or independents, but something may have changed in the last month.

Rep. Kenan Judge of Waukee is trying to win votes. Judge is a Democrat in a district that has more active Republicans and independents than his own party.

Still, he won by nearly 10.5 points in 2022. “That doesn't mean it will happen again this year. You have to work and talk to people and make the votes count,” he said.

Judge is running against Republican Oliver Bardwell.

There are currently 168,000 more active registered Republican voters nationwide than Democratic voters.

According to Tim Hagle, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa, there are several reasons for this, including a 2021 law that sets voters' status to inactive if they miss an election.

“It's happening much faster than it used to. Previously, if you didn't vote, you were put into inactive status every four years, now it's every two years,” he said.

Hagle says fluctuations in registration are cyclical, and one reason for the Democrats' decline is likely because they haven't had a competitive caucus. “If you have an incumbent president, even with the caucuses, there probably won't be a lot of activity. But if you have an open caucus, it provides an opportunity for the party that has that caucus to really increase their voter registration,” Hagle said.

While Democrats are down, Hagle says the shift in the Democratic presidential ticket has changed the energy in the race. “The Harris campaign is relying on sentiment and this is kind of a 'Brat Summer' thing. Don't ask me to explain it, but it might resonate to some degree,” he said.

Harris' campaign taps into the “Brat Summer” trend, a youthful mood that means accepting yourself and your imperfections.

The Iowa Secretary of State's office releases voter registration reports monthly, but Hagle receives weekly reports.

Hagle says the change in mood has been reflected in voter registrations. “Although unaffiliated registrations still dominate, we have seen Democrats over Republicans in recent weeks. Not much, but something,” he said.

Judge says he believes he can continue to build connections with voters by continuing to knock on doors and meet with them. “We live in a polarized world in many ways, but I think I can get past that and talk to people who may not agree with me politically,” Judge said.

Final voter registration numbers for this month will be announced in early September.

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Conner Hendricks covers state government and politics for Gray Media-owned stations in Iowa. Email to [email protected]; and follow him on Facebook at Conner Hendricks TV or on X/Twitter @ConnerReports.

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