Emmy predictions 2024: Will “Shōgun” break the “Game of Thrones” record?

In 2015, Game of Thrones set the record for most Primetime Emmy Awards for a drama series in a single year, with 12. The HBO giant repeated the feat in 2016 and 2019, but has never managed to win more than a dozen trophies in a single season. This year, a brand new series from FX looks set to break that record, as Shōgun leads all contenders with 25 nominations.

“Shōgun”, based on James ClavellYoshii Toranaga's bestselling novel is set in Japan in the year 1600, at the beginning of a civil war that would shape the entire century.Hiroyuki Sanada) fights for his life while his enemies in the Regent Council unite against him when a mysterious European ship is discovered stranded in a nearby fishing village. The FX series from Rachel Kondo And Justin Marks The series premiered on February 27, 2024, and the season finale aired on April 23, 2024. The series is currently available to stream on Hulu.

SEE Hiroyuki Sanada (“Shōgun”) on his Emmy nominations and Toranaga’s future: “We will begin a long journey”

Below we describe the path of “Shōgun” into history, which won at least 13 awards at the 2024 Emmys.

Drama series

It's hard to imagine “Shōgun” making history without taking home the night's top prize. According to our odds, it would take a huge upset for them to lose here. Almost 18 times as many Gold Derby users are picking “Shōgun” as best drama series than they are picking runner-up “The Crown.”

Drama actress

Anna-Lena Schröder is currently the favorite for the award for Best Drama Actress for her role as Toda Mariko. She is the favorite among Emmy experts, editors, Top 24 and All-Star prognosticators. Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”) is in second place by a wide margin, followed by Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”).

SEE Nominated for an Emmy for the first time: Anna Sawai (“Shōgun”): Lady Mariko “will always have a very special place in me”

Drama Actor

Hiroyuki Sanada leads our odds for the Best Drama Actor award for his role as Lord Yoshii Toranaga. Like Sawai, he is the leading Emmy expert, editor, Top 24 and All-Star prognosticator. His closest competitors are Oscar winners Gary Oldman (“Slow Horses”) and Emmy winner Donald Glover (“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”).

Supporting Actor in a Drama

Although “Shōgun” has two entrants in this category, both are considered at risk of losing the title of “Best Drama Supporting Actor” to the 2020 winner. Billy Crudup (“The Morning Show”). Tadanobu Asano As second and with the support of five experts, he has the best chance of causing a surprise. Takehiro Hira is considered far less likely to be the winner and is currently ranked 5th. They will play against Kashigi Yabushige and Ishido Kazunari respectively.

Acting Direction

The most praised part of “Shōgun” is the penultimate episode “Crimson Sky”, directed by Frederick EO Toye. This ninth episode of the first season aired on April 16, 2024, and is in line to win the Emmy for Best Drama Directing. Our odds put it well ahead of runner-up “Sleep, Dearie Sleep” from “The Crown” and third-place “First Date” from “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.”

SEE Tadanobu Asano (“Shogun”): The scheming Yabushige “does not realize that he is evil”

Writing drama

Like the direction, “Crimson Sky” is also expected to bring in another “Shōgun” win for best drama screenplay. The screenplay was written by Rachel Kondo And Caillin Puenteboth of which are nominated for the first time this year. Also in the running is the series premiere “Anjin”, written by Rachel Kondo and Justin Markswhich currently ranks fourth in our quota.

Drama Guest Actor

Experienced actor Nestor Carbonell is expected to win the award for Best Drama Guest Actor for his role as Spanish sailor Vasco Rodrigues in the series premiere “Anjin.” He has a solid lead in our ratings over John Turturro (“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”) and Jonathan Pryce (“Slow Horses”). This is Carbonell’s first Emmy nomination.

Design of the main title

The Emmy for main title design can be a bit unpredictable, sometimes going to shows that aren't real contenders in other categories (think of “The Good Lord Bird” winning in 2021 or “Godfather of Harlem” in 2020). Still, this is expected to be another number for “Shōgun,” which has stiff competition from “Fallout” and “Lessons in Chemistry.” The nominees for “Shōgun” are here Nadia TzuoCreative Director; Michael Zeng And Ilya Zeliutindesigners; Alex Silver, Danielle Buckley And Evan Larimoreanimators.

SEE Nestor Carbonell (“Shōgun”): “You don’t get roles like this very often”

Main title theme music

Not since Stranger Things in 2017 has the same show won Best Theme Design and Best Theme Music at the Emmys, but Shōgun is expected to pull off the rare double this year. It has a good chance of beating out Lessons in Chemistry in second place and Palm Royale in third. The nominees for Shōgun are Nick Chuba, Leopold Ross and two-time Oscar winner Atticus Ross (“The Social Network” and “Soul”).

Music for series

The same “Shōgun” trio that was nominated for the theme music is expected to win a second award for best music in a series. Chuba, Ross and Ross are nominated again for their original music, beating their closest rivals from “The Crown,” “Only Murders in the Building” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.”

Drama Casting

The Emmy for Best Drama Cast often coincides with the winner for Best Drama Series, so it's no surprise that “Shōgun” wins here ahead of its closest rivals “The Crown” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.” The FX dramas in this category are represented by casting directors. Laura Schiff And Carrie Audinoand casting directors for locations Kei Kawamura, Maureen Webb And Colleen Bolton.

SEE Emmy-nominated Takehiro Hira (“Shōgun”) wants to “get to the surface” of Lord Ishido

The 11 categories above are all in our prediction center at Gold Derby and therefore show their current odds of winning. If “Shōgun” performs as expected and wins 10 of these awards, it will be on track to overtake “Game of Thrones” with only three more awards from the categories not represented here. Below are the other categories for which “Shōgun” has at least one nomination.

Best Cinematography for a Series (One Hour)
Best Editing for a Drama Series
Best historical costumes
Best hairstyle from historical or fantasy/sci-fi style
Best Prosthetic Makeup
Best Historical or Fantasy/Sci-Fi Makeup (Non-Prosthetic)
Best Production Design for a Narrative Period or Fantasy Program
Best Sound Editing (one hour)
Best Sound Mixing (One Hour)
Best Stunt Performance
Best special effects

Do YOU ​​think “Shōgun” will win at least 13 Emmys this year and break the record for a drama series currently held by “Game of Thrones”? If it beats or surpasses 13 wins, it will tie (or surpass) the overall record holder “John Adams,” the HBO miniseries with Paul Giamatti from 2008.