FAU poll shows huge turnaround in Trump-Harris race that might surprise you

FAU pollsters say it's too early to tell whether Kamala Harris' overwhelming lead is due to a post-convention rebound or part of a continuing trend in her favor. But it does show that the vice president has closed the “enthusiasm gap.”

After a 9-point swing last month, Vice President Kamala Harris now leads former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race, according to a poll released Tuesday, August 27, by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research.

A poll of voters across the United States conducted after the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention last week found Harris leading Trump among likely voters, 49% to 45%. The Democratic candidate also led her Republican rival by four percentage points among all voters, 47% to 43%.

That's a stunning reversal from a national poll released by FAU and Mainstreet on July 23, just two days after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris. That poll found Trump leading Harris by a comfortable 5 percentage points among likely voters (49% to 44%) and by 4 percentage points among all voters (47% to 43%).

“I think you can see that the trend has been toward the vice president since she's been in the race,” said Kevin Wagner, a pollster and FAU associate dean. “Certainly that trend has been aided and abetted by the convention, which has certainly energized the Democrats.”

Wagner said it was too early to judge whether Harris' lead was a typical, temporary post-convention surge or part of a sustained trend in her favor since July 21.

“The question of whether it is an upturn can only be judged in hindsight,” he said. “If the numbers go down again, you know it is a conventional upturn. If they do not go down again, it is part of a long-term trend.”

Kamala Harris' poll numbers suggest a Democratic comeback. Will it last?

Democratic Party supporters in the call center for Kamala Harris

Dozens of Kamala Harris supporters operated a call center in Delray Beach

Despite this clear dynamic, it is notable that this poll's group of voters favored Biden by six percentage points in the 2020 election, suggesting that Harris is just behind the outgoing president.

Wagner cautioned, however, that the comparison is not entirely accurate, pointing out that Harris managed a comeback from a “pretty negative and significant deficit” when Biden was at the top of the Democratic ticket. It is also entirely possible that Harris mirrors Biden's performance if a 3.2 percentage point margin of error is applied, he said.

What was the reason for the turnaround? Wagner said the deciding factor was Harris' ability to mobilize Democrats and win back those who weren't keen to support Biden's re-election campaign.

“The most important takeaway is not that there's been a major shift in how voters view these candidates, but that you see more enthusiasm among the traditional Democratic base for their candidacy than for Joe Biden,” he said. “This has made the race much closer and more exciting and offers Democrats a chance to actually win.”

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Harris performs better in the Democratic core electorate and among independents

Wagner said the data showed Harris regained her advantage across the gender gap, beating Trump by nearly 12 points among women, 53.2 percent to 41.4 percent. In contrast, Trump has a marginal preference among male voters – just 2.1 points, at 47.4 percent to 45.3 percent.

Harris also increased her lead among black voters to 50 percentage points (72.5 percent to 21 percent) and also won back the Latino voters that Biden had lost to Trump, posting a 51 percent to 35.4 percent lead among that group of voters.

Harris also significantly widened the gap among independent voters, according to the poll, with 48 percent of respondents saying they supported her while 35 percent voted for Trump. In the FAU Mainstreet Poll released last month, the gap was even more even, with Harris just two percentage points ahead of Trump, 45 percent to 43 percent.

“Trump is losing support among independents compared to July, which could be a result of the Democratic National Convention and will need to be monitored,” said Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU, in a statement. “If this pattern continues, it will be difficult for Trump to maintain his lead in the election.”

The only area where Trump did best in the poll was among white voters without a college degree, where he was ahead by more than 20 percentage points, 58.7 percent to 35.9 percent.

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For Wagner, this suggested that Harris's rise “has much more to do with the Democratic coalition and its unification than with getting Trump voters to switch sides.”

Pollsters also said they viewed Harris's running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, as a more “moderate” candidate than his Republican counterpart, U.S. Senator JD Vance of Ohio.

“In some ways, I think the Democrats accomplished their mission in trying to put someone on the ballot who could appeal to a more moderate voter in the Midwest,” Wagner added.

In fact, the poll found that 51.9 percent of those supporting Harris expressed joy, happiness, excitement and pride about the prospects for the November election. Among those who expressed their support for Trump, the emotions they chose – 56.6 percent – were fear, anger, sadness and pride.

Democrats in Florida say they have assembled an “army” of volunteers

On Tuesday morning, Democrats in Florida said the increased momentum following the convention could also be seen in Trump's home state.

Since the conclusion of the party's quadrennial convention in Chicago last Thursday, Florida Democrats say another 13,000 volunteers have come forward to support the Harris-Walz campaign in the state. In total, nearly 40,000 people have come forward to support the campaign since Harris entered the race on July 21.

“This is an army,” said Nikki Fried, chairwoman of the Democratic Party in Florida. The additional forces have improved voter outreach, making 1.2 million home visits and 2.1 million phone calls, she added.

Fried said Democrats would blindside Republicans on the ballot on two issues that matter most to Florida voters: the state's property insurance crisis and protecting reproductive rights. She added that voters were also “frustrated” by textbook bans and even a widely criticized state proposal to build golf courses in pristine state parks.

“It's time to take back our state, time to celebrate the diversity of our state and lift everyone up,” Fried said. “We need to build a country where everyone has the chance to rise up without having to tear others down. That's the campaign that Kamala Harris is leading.”

Fried also pointed to reports that the Trump campaign bought advertising time in the West Palm Beach media market this week, which is covering Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate and saying the Republican candidate is “afraid of losing our state.”

State GOP official: Florida ‘leads ahead’ while Democrats just tally numbers

Republican officials in Florida scoff at the idea that the Democratic surge is an existential threat to their election victories in November.

Last week, state Republican Chairman Evan Power reiterated that he remains optimistic about Trump and the party's candidates on Nov. 5, citing a massive electoral lead in the state, Republican turnout in Tuesday's primary and a fundraising advantage, which he said speak to enthusiasm.

“I know Democrats like to brag about numbers, but if they have nothing else, they brag about the number of volunteers,” Power said.

In addition to her historic one million voter lead over Democrats in the Sunshine State, Power pointed out that the state Republican Party has raised nearly $14 million in donations over the past 10 weeks, a 7-1 lead.

In the August 20 primaries, Republicans generated more votes for their candidates than Democrats, he added.

Looking ahead to the Nov. 5 election, Power said Florida Republicans have given their district associations more power by providing them with “materials and data to interact with voters.”

He said the party is particularly targeting “low-inclination voters” to get them to vote and “send the message that Florida is leading.” Power said hundreds of thousands of brochures have been sent to county chapters and demand for more continues unabated.

“Florida is a beacon of freedom for the rest of the nation and people want to keep it that way,” he said. “Every time Nikki Fried talks about Florida being in play, we can raise money because people don't want what she's selling.”

Antonio Fins is politics and business editor for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. Reach him at [email protected]. Support our journalism. Subscribe today.

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FAU poll shows huge turnaround in Trump-Harris race that might surprise you

FAU pollsters say it's too early to tell whether Kamala Harris' overwhelming lead is due to a post-convention rebound or part of a continuing trend in her favor. But it does show that the vice president has closed the “enthusiasm gap.”

Kamala Harris' poll numbers suggest a Democratic comeback. Will it last?

Harris performs better in the Democratic core electorate and among independents

Democrats in Florida say they have assembled an “army” of volunteers

State GOP official: Florida ‘leads ahead’ while Democrats just tally numbers

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FAU poll shows huge turnaround in Trump-Harris race that might surprise you

FAU pollsters say it's too early to tell whether Kamala Harris' overwhelming lead is due to a post-convention rebound or part of a continuing trend in her favor. But it does show that the vice president has closed the “enthusiasm gap.”

Kamala Harris' poll numbers suggest a Democratic comeback. Will it last?

Harris performs better in the Democratic core electorate and among independents

Democrats in Florida say they have assembled an “army” of volunteers

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