Summit shows China – and Xi

Jake Sullivan has arrived for his first visit to China as US national security adviser. He will hold talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi as the two countries seek to stabilize their relations.

Mr Sullivan and Mr Wang have met four times in 16 months, in Vienna, Malta, Washington and Bangkok. Their last meeting in January came shortly after a key summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden aimed at repairing frosty relations.

This week's talks, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, signal that China remains a priority for the Biden administration as the outgoing president enters his final months in office.

Is another summit planned?

The White House is trying not to explicitly link Sullivan's trip to the US presidential election, but the timing is hard to ignore.

If Mr Sullivan succeeds in laying the groundwork for a final summit between Biden and Xi, his trip would bring together the ends of the US president's most consequential – and tense – foreign policy relationship.

US and Chinese diplomats always admit that talks between Washington and Beijing are never easy. And there is a lot to discuss.

Given the unexpected turn the US election has taken with Biden's defeat in favor of Kamala Harris, China is closely watching what the next presidency might hold.

Donald Trump has made it clear that he will further increase tariffs on Chinese goods, which may Trade war that he triggered in 2019.

Although Biden’s administration recognized the value of diplomatic action, he did not lift the Trump-era tariffs and imposed further tariffs in May. he announced high tariffs on electric cars, solar panels and steel made in China.

Mr Biden has also strengthened alliances across Asia to Combating China’s growing influence and increased Washington's military presence – which in turn has unsettled Beijing.

So far, Harris and her campaign team have not given many clues about how she plans to shape relations with China.

And the White House has made clear that Mr Sullivan's visit is intended to continue the work of the Biden administration rather than set the tone for the next president.

But China is probably still looking ahead.

Beijing will use this opportunity with Mr Sullivan to clarify its own priorities. It hopes all parties in America are listening – China's Foreign Ministry has called this a “critical turning point” between the world's two largest economies.

For China, Taiwan remains the red line. It lays claim to the self-governing island and has repeatedly stated that it will not tolerate any signs that Washington supports Taiwan's independence.

High-level diplomatic visits, such as a controversial by then Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi in 2022 or the recognition of Taiwan's elections or its elected leadership fall into this category.

According to Chinese state media, Beijing will focus on expressing its serious concerns, explaining its position and making serious demands on issues such as the “Taiwan issue.”

China will also have tough words to say to Mr Sullivan on trade issues. Beijing has called US tariffs on Chinese goods “unreasonable” and called on Washington to “stop politicising and securitising economic and trade issues” and “take more measures to facilitate people-to-people exchanges between the two countries”.

When he came to power, Biden wanted to put relations with China on a stable footing after finding the Trump White House chaotic and unpredictable.

His administration wanted to “manage the rivalry with Beijing responsibly”; it wanted to demonstrate American power and competition with China through stealth, not boasting.

But this strategy was turned on its head in the wake of the turbulence of events.

Last year, the direct relationship fell into crisis when a US fighter jet shot down suspected Chinese spy balloon over US territory.

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have made the tone even more severe.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing in April with the warning that Washington would act if China did not stop supplying Russia with microchips and machine parts for the construction of weapons for the war in Ukraine.

He accused his Chinese counterparts of “helping to fuel the greatest threat” to European security since the Cold War.

His warning became reality: he imposed a series of sanctions on Chinese companies for their alleged support of the Russian military.

This is a sensitive issue that China has repeatedly tried to brush aside, but Washington remains persistent and Mr Sullivan is likely to raise it again.

China's increasing assertiveness in Asia has also raised concerns in the United States about the impact of these relations on other continents – particularly with Iran, which is an ally of Moscow and also supplies weapons to Israel's opponents.

Finally, in America, there is the devastating impact of the “precursor chemicals” produced in China to produce synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, whose overdoses more Americans killed than ever before and the crisis has devastated entire cities.

Last year's summit between Mr Biden and Mr Xi in San Francisco was intended to make progress on these issues.

Since then, despite the tariffs and harsh rhetoric, Washington and Beijing have acknowledged their differences – and reports of an agreement between the two sides to restrict fentanyl production are a good sign.

When the BBC accompanied US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on his visit to Shanghai and Beijing in April, the public aspects of some of his meetings with senior Chinese politicians gave the impression of an iron stalemate.

It was a show of diplomatic strength aimed at domestic audiences on both sides. And this will no doubt be part of Mr Sullivan's trip as well, as he seeks to bolster Mr Biden's diplomacy in the final months of his presidency.

But these meetings serve another fundamental purpose: they provide an opportunity to meet face-to-face with two rival, interdependent economies battling each other and trying to figure out each other's true intentions.

It seems that Jake Sullivan's previous meetings with Wang Yi have quietly laid the foundation for what both sides describe as “stable relations.”

In a recent speech to the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, Sullivan said he and Wang had “increasingly gotten to the point of putting aside the talking points and having really strategic conversations.”

He described the nature of these discussions as “direct,” including one about the war in Ukraine.

“We both felt that we didn't agree or agree on everything, but that there was still a lot of work ahead of us.”